Sydney's Hot Start: A Historical Precursor to Premiership Success?
Sydney's Impressive Start
After a decisive victory against the Western Bulldogs in Round 11, Sydney now sits atop the AFL ladder with an impressive 10-1 record. This remarkable start has placed the Swans in prime position for a potential premiership run.
Historical Precedence
While Sydney's hot start is commendable, it is not an unprecedented phenomenon. Over the past 25 seasons since 2000, 21 teams have begun a season with a 10-1 or 10-0 record. Of those previous teams, nine have gone on to win the premiership, including three of the past five champions (Collingwood, Melbourne, and West Coast).
Grand Final Prospects
Out of the 20 teams that started the season 10-0 or 10-1 since 2000, 13 have reached the Grand Final. This statistic positions the Swans favorably for at least reaching the decider in 2024.
Notable Exceptions
Despite the impressive success rate, two teams have failed to reach the preliminary final stage after starting with a 10-0 or 10-1 record:
- North Melbourne (2016): Started 10-1 but finished eighth and lost an elimination final.
- Melbourne (2022): Started 10-0 but was eliminated in straight sets as defending premiers.
Historical Team Performances
The following table provides a summary of notable team performances after starting the season with a 10-0 or 10-1 record:
| Team | Year | Record | Finals Result | | --------------- | -------- | ---------- | -------------------- | | Sydney | 2024 | 10-1 | TBC | | Collingwood | 2023 | 10-1 | Premier | | Melbourne | 2022 | 10-0 | Out in straight sets | | Melbourne | 2021 | 10-1 | Premier | | Geelong | 2019 | 10-1 | Lost Preliminary Final | | West Coast | 2018 | 10-1 | Premier | | North Melbourne | 2016 | 10-1 | Lost Elimination Final | | Fremantle | 2015 | 10-1 | Lost Preliminary Final | | Port Adelaide | 2014 | 10-1 | Lost Preliminary Final |
Conclusion
Sydney's 10-1 start to the 2024 season places them well on track for a potential premiership run. While such a hot start does not guarantee success, historically, teams with similar records have fared favorably in the finals.